بررسی و پیش بینی وضع آلاینده های هوای شهر کرمان با مدل سری های زمانی

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Student, Dept of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman Medical University, Kerman, Iran   Khanjani, N., Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Epidemiology and Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman Medical University, Kerman, Iran - Corresponding author: [email protected]   Rananadeh Kalankesh, L., MS.c. Student, Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman Medical University, Kerman, Iran   Pourmousa, R., MS.c. Lecturer, Department of Statistics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran       Received: Apr 3, 2012 Accepted: Feb 14, 2013     ABSTRACT     Background and Aim: Air pollution is one of the most important problems of big cities in developing countries and can have several negative health effects on humans. Therefore studying these pollutants can help in developing programs for air pollution control. The aim of this study was to estimate and predict the changes of air pollutants in Kerman, Iran.   Materials and Methods: In this ecological study, data about seven important air pollutants in Kerman including NO, CO, NO2, NOx, PM10, SO2 and O3 from March 2006 until September 2010 was inquired from the Kerman Province Environmental Protection Agency. Then the data was calculated as averages per month and by incorporating time series models, predictions were done for each pollutant.   Results: All of the pollutants were steady in Kerman, except CO which is significantly decreasing and PM10 which is increasing. All of the pollutants had a seasonal pattern. Time series models with a 12, 3, 8, 12, 12, 12 and 6 month seasonal pattern were fit for O3 , SO2 , PM10 , NOx , NO2 , CO and NO consecutively.   Conclusion: The production of ambient CO is decreasing in Kerman and one reason is probably replacing and retiring old automobiles. However PM10 is increasing in Kerman and in most seasons it is above standard and therefore control initiatives should be implemented.